Simulation of the martingale fallacy

This is a simulation. No real money can be won or lost on this web site.

Maximum of 3 spins per round

Result	Bet per round	Payout per round	Number of rounds	Total Bets	Total Amount paid out
Win on spin 1	$1	$2	19	$19	$38
Win on spin 2	$3	$4	11	$33	$44
Win on spin 3	$7	$8	9	$63	$72
Lost all 3 spins	$7		9	$63
Total for this simulation			48	$178	$154

So far the punters have lost $24. This is an average loss of $0.5 per round. In the long run, the average loss should approach $0.083 per round.

So far the casino has returned 86.52% of the amount bet back to the customers. In the long run we expect that they will return 36/37 or 97.30% of the amount bet.

Maximum of 9 spins per round

Result	Bet per round	Payout per round	Number of rounds	Total Bets	Total Amount paid out
Win on spin 1	$1	$2	580	$580	$1160
Win on spin 2	$3	$4	286	$858	$1144
Win on spin 3	$7	$8	152	$1064	$1216
Win on spin 4	$15	$16	81	$1215	$1296
Win on spin 5	$31	$32	35	$1085	$1120
Win on spin 6	$63	$64	41	$2583	$2624
Win on spin 7	$127	$128	12	$1524	$1536
Win on spin 8	$255	$256	2	$510	$512
Win on spin 9	$511	$512	4	$2044	$2048
Lost all 9 spins	$511		1	$511
Total for this simulation			1194	$11974	$12656

So far this simulation has run in the punter's favour, but as the number of simulations increases this is expected to reverse. In the long run, the average loss should approach $0.271 per round.

So far the casino has returned 105.7% of the amount bet back to the customers. In the long run we expect that they will return 36/37 or 97.30% of the amount bet.

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